How to estimate payback before a full rollout using conservative assumptions
How to estimate payback before a full rollout using conservative assumptions
Last Updated: February 2026
10 Pages
https://sg1consulting.us
Estimate pilot ROI by measuring current manual hours, error/rework rates, and throughput delays for one workflow, then apply conservative automation savings (20-40%) and compare against the pilot cost over 90-180 days. Start with one process, not a full transformation model.
Method rule
Use this baseline equation for a 30-60 day pilot and 90-180 day payback review.
| Metric | Formula | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly hours saved | Volume x Time per item x % reduction | Use 20-40% reduction for first pilot estimates |
| Monthly labor value (USD) | Hours saved x loaded hourly cost | Include wages, benefits, payroll tax, and reviewer time |
| Rework savings | Reduced errors x avg rework time x hourly cost | Only include measurable rework |
| Pilot ROI | (90-180 day value - pilot cost) / pilot cost | Review after pilot stabilizes |
| Input | US example | Conservative automation assumption |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly submissions | 1,200 intake emails/forms | Use recent 30-day average |
| Current handling time | 7 minutes each | Measure across 20-30 samples |
| Automation savings | 30% handling-time reduction | Pilot target for classification + routing |
| Human review | 100% on exceptions, sampled on routine cases | Keep approvals in place during pilot |
| Outcome to track | Faster routing + fewer missed follow-ups across locations | Tie to service-level target |
Use this methodology to score one workflow, then book a pilot scoping session. If you want a faster start, use our What to Automate First scorecard before your consultation. US teams should also define who signs off on exception handling during the pilot.
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